TY - JOUR AU - Chumachenko, Dmytro AU - Chumachenko, Tetyana PY - 2017/05/02 Y2 - 2024/03/28 TI - Agent-based investigation of sexually transmitted infection JF - Online Journal of Public Health Informatics JA - OJPHI VL - 9 IS - 1 SE - Information system architectures, development and implementation DO - 10.5210/ojphi.v9i1.7638 UR - https://ojphi.org/ojs/index.php/ojphi/article/view/7638 SP - AB - <div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 332.706px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(1.08186);" data-canvas-width="63.1985303030303">Objective</div><div style="left: 104.045px; top: 347.521px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.02893);" data-canvas-width="376.07477272727266">To develop agent-based model of sexually transmitted infections</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 364.036px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00194);" data-canvas-width="280.74353787878783">spreading by example of Syphilis and its analysis.</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 395.463px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(1.11811);" data-canvas-width="81.88294696969696">Introduction</div><div style="left: 104.045px; top: 410.279px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.989497);" data-canvas-width="374.7720575757576">Every year nearly 12 million new cases of syphilis in the world are</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 426.794px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.998116);" data-canvas-width="389.7476666666666">registered. Currently, in many countries of the world the stabilization</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 443.309px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.991455);" data-canvas-width="389.67466969696954">or even reduction of the incidence of syphilis is marked, but this does</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 459.824px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.980175);" data-canvas-width="389.5216568181817">not apply to Ukraine. The current stage of development of the syphilis</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 476.339px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.02006);" data-canvas-width="390.5478257575757">problem in Ukraine is characterized by not only high morbidity, but</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 492.854px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.98238);" data-canvas-width="389.18615151515144">also the fact that in the overwhelming number of cases, we are talking</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 509.369px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.01008);" data-canvas-width="390.2614530303029">about the latent forms and atypical manifestations of the disease and</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 525.885px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00225);" data-canvas-width="138.7784696969697">resistance to therapy [1].</div><div style="left: 104.045px; top: 542.4px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.986596);" data-canvas-width="374.54464393939395">Preventive and prophylactic measures are important in maintaining</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 558.915px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.981468);" data-canvas-width="389.18474772727274">the public health. Predicting the dynamics of disease spreading allows</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 575.43px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.980547);" data-canvas-width="391.4995939393939">developing appropriate countermeasures and ensuring rational use</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 591.945px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.985834);" data-canvas-width="391.7705250000003">of human and material resources. Qualitative forecast of syphilis</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 608.46px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.03324);" data-canvas-width="393.338556060606">spreading is possible to implement by means of mathematical</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 624.976px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00286);" data-canvas-width="56.544575757575764">modeling.</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 656.403px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(1.07334);" data-canvas-width="57.70971969696969">Methods</div><div style="left: 104.045px; top: 671.218px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.07738);" data-canvas-width="379.86500000000007">Deterministic analytical models that are most common in</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 687.733px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.965232);" data-canvas-width="391.49819015151485">epidemiological studies do not take into account the dynamic and</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 704.248px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.998657);" data-canvas-width="392.1060303030301">stochastic nature of epidemics. Agent-based simulation approach</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 720.763px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.04044);" data-canvas-width="391.0840727272721">to modeling allows fixing these shortcomings. It allows conveying</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 737.279px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00443);" data-canvas-width="390.07194166666665">the social structure of simulated system by the most natural and easy</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 753.794px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.02036);" data-canvas-width="390.5422106060605">way. Each agent has individual state variables and rules of behavior</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 770.309px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.959831);" data-canvas-width="391.06722727272745">that allows detailing the model very deeply. Therefore there is no</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 786.824px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.01132);" data-canvas-width="392.84863409090894">need to describe the complex system of mathematical formulas</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 803.339px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.04112);" data-canvas-width="391.0265174242423">and probability of the dynamics of the epidemic process is defined</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 819.854px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.998963);" data-canvas-width="389.7953954545455">parametrically. The NetLogo software has been used for the program</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 836.369px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.0023);" data-canvas-width="198.4394545454546">realization of the developed model.</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 867.797px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(1.08498);" data-canvas-width="50.70481818181818">Results</div><div style="left: 104.045px; top: 882.612px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00439);" data-canvas-width="375.2240772727272">The model of morbidity by syphilis spreading has been developed</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 899.127px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.964483);" data-canvas-width="388.86328030303036">by the tradition SIR model expansion. Thus, agents can be in following</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 915.642px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.971364);" data-canvas-width="247.64923863636358">states: S (Susceptible) for health people, I</div><div style="left: 336.78px; top: 925.278px; font-size: 8.42273px; font-family: serif;">P</div><div style="left: 341.532px; top: 915.642px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.960883);" data-canvas-width="139.15187727272726">(Infected Primary) for</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 932.157px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.997745);" data-canvas-width="392.28010000000006">infected people who stay in primary stage and can transmit the</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 948.672px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.986984);" data-canvas-width="328.3038712121211">infection by direct sexual contact with susceptible person, I</div><div style="left: 417.444px; top: 958.309px; font-size: 8.42273px; font-family: serif;">S</div><div style="left: 422.121px; top: 948.672px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.981392);" data-canvas-width="56.495443181818175">(Infected</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 965.188px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.996656);" data-canvas-width="389.77574242424214">Secondary) for infected people who stay in secondary stage and have</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 981.703px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.03212);" data-canvas-width="167.4438181818182">also infectious skin lesions, I</div><div style="left: 256.68px; top: 991.339px; font-size: 8.42273px; font-family: serif;">L</div><div style="left: 261.853px; top: 981.703px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.03482);" data-canvas-width="218.17390454545458">(Infected Latent) for infected people</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 998.218px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.95022);" data-canvas-width="391.34798484848505">who stay in latent stage and change its contagious rate from early</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1014.73px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.988272);" data-canvas-width="207.15838106060605">latent syphilis to late latent syphilis, I</div><div style="left: 296.34px; top: 1024.37px; font-size: 8.42273px; font-family: serif;">T</div><div style="left: 301.485px; top: 1014.73px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.993536);" data-canvas-width="177.1804909090909">(Infected Tertiary) for infected</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1031.25px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.01368);" data-canvas-width="390.2993553030303">people who stay in tertiary stage and transmit the infection partially,</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1047.76px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.01348);" data-canvas-width="390.3934090909088">and R (Recovered) for people who are recovered from the infection.</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1064.28px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.951562);" data-canvas-width="391.2188363636365">Infecting of agents in the model depends on the number and state</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1080.79px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.957927);" data-canvas-width="391.6006666666665">of agents and the stage of infected agent’s disease. Also, in order</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1097.31px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.981387);" data-canvas-width="391.884231818182">to correctly determine the intensity of contacts with other agents</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1113.82px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.04259);" data-canvas-width="390.81454545454545">different age groups of agents have been highlighted in the model.</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1130.34px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.03477);" data-canvas-width="390.9549242424242">Screen form of developed agent-based model of syphilis spreading</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1146.85px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00197);" data-canvas-width="107.62841666666665">is shown in Figure.</div><div style="left: 104.045px; top: 1163.37px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.975176);" data-canvas-width="374.5488553030301">The transmission between agent’s states are defined by probabilistic</div><div style="left: 89.1818px; top: 1179.88px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.02296);" data-canvas-width="390.65030227272723">way and depends on features of particular states as well as different</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 331.006px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.964298);" data-canvas-width="390.97457727272706">factors, such as coupling tendency, condom use, commitment, test</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 347.521px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00223);" data-canvas-width="79.51054545454545">frequency etc.</div><div style="left: 520.227px; top: 364.036px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.964762);" data-canvas-width="376.36956818181835">The analysis of experiments under developed model has shown</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 380.551px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.01562);" data-canvas-width="390.3358537878789">that the most influencing factor in the reduction in the percentage of</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 397.066px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.973654);" data-canvas-width="389.10473181818185">patients is frequency of checks on the disease and isolation of patients,</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 413.582px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00682);" data-canvas-width="390.15897651515166">the second most important factor is constancy of sexual partners, the</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 430.097px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.03528);" data-canvas-width="390.76541287878786">third is the use of condoms, and finally, the fourth is the number of</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 446.612px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00217);" data-canvas-width="128.62908333333334">exchangeable partners.</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 478.039px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: sans-serif; transform: scaleX(1.10288);" data-canvas-width="84.24131060606061">Conclusions</div><div style="left: 520.227px; top: 492.854px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.01164);" data-canvas-width="375.52027651515147">The agent-based model of syphilis spreading has been developed.</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 509.369px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.04989);" data-canvas-width="393.9548189393938">The model allows forecasting the morbidity by infection and</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 525.885px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.02124);" data-canvas-width="390.60818863636354">analyzing the disease by changing the initial data. All data has been</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 542.4px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00798);" data-canvas-width="390.188456060606">checked by the factual statistics on the syphilis incidence in Kharkiv</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 558.915px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.966212);" data-canvas-width="391.5894363636364">region (Ukraine) from 1975 to 2015 years. The simulation results</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 575.43px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.99134);" data-canvas-width="389.5637704545454">allow us determining the direction of prevention of syphilis treatment</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 591.945px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.04574);" data-canvas-width="390.88192727272735">and the main factors in reducing morbidity. As is evident from the</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 608.46px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.990899);" data-canvas-width="392.1481439393938">simulation results, social factors take precedence over the health</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 624.976px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.977034);" data-canvas-width="391.725603787879">care that gives grounds for advocacy in health policy among the</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 641.491px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.994127);" data-canvas-width="389.5651742424243">population, especially the youth. Developed model can be configured</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 658.006px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(0.989982);" data-canvas-width="392.23096742424235">for other sexually transmitted infections by changing the disease</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 674.521px; font-size: 14.0379px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00261);" data-canvas-width="87.34368181818184">transition rules.</div><div style="left: 505.364px; top: 1010.72px; font-size: 12.3864px; font-family: serif; transform: scaleX(1.00195);" data-canvas-width="381.52477272727253">Figure. The main panel of simulation management and graphic visualization.</div> ER -