Characterizing Fentanyl-Associated Mortality using the Literal Causes of Death

Brandon Ramsey, Heather Rubino, Janet J. Hamilton, David Atrubin

Abstract


ObjectiveTo characterize fentanyl-associated mortality in Florida using freetext queries of the literal causes of death listed on death certificates.IntroductionIn October 2015, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC) released health advisory #384 to inform people about increasesin fentanyl fatalities. Florida’s statewide syndromic surveillancesystem, Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification ofCommunity-based Epidemics (ESSENCE-FL), captures electronicdeath record data in near real time which allows for the monitoringof mortality trends across the state. One limitation of using deathrecord data for fentanyl surveillance is the lack of a fentanyl-specificoverdose ICD-10 code; however, the literal cause of death fields(“literals”) provide a level of detail that is rich enough to capturementions of fentanyl use. The “literals” are a free text field on thedeath certificate, recorded by a physician at the time of death anddetail the factors that led to the death. ESSENCE-FL has the benefitof not only receiving death record data in near real-time, but alsoreceiving the literal cause of death fields. This work analyzes trendsin fentanyl-associated mortality in Florida over time by using theliteral cause of death fields within death records data obtained fromESSENCE-FL.MethodsThe “literals” elements of Florida Vital Statistics mortality datafrom 2010 through 2015 accessed via ESSENCE-FL were queriedfor the term ^fent^. No necessary negations or extra term inclusionswere deemed necessary after looking at the records pulled with ^fent^alone. Deaths were analyzed by various demographic and geographicvariables to characterize this population in order to assess whichgroups are most heavily burdened by fentanyl-associated mortality.Population estimates by county for 2015 were obtained from the U.S.Census Bureau to calculate mortality rates. Language processing in RStudio was used to determine which other substances were commonlyreported when fentanyl was listed on the death certificate, in order toassess polydrug use and its impact on increased mortality.ResultsCompared to the number of fentanyl-associated mortalities in 2010(82), fentanyl-associated mortality in 2015 (599) was 6.5 times higherafter controlling for the natural increase in total mortality between2010 and 2015. Almost three-fourths of the deaths in 2015 were male(73%), which is higher than the proportion of male deaths in 2010(55%). The age group with the largest burden of fentanyl-associatedmortality was the 30 – 39 age group, with almost one-third of thedeaths in 2015 coming from this age group (31%) compared to only10% in 2010, a roughly 200% increase. Fentanyl-associated mortalitywas almost exclusive to people that are Caucasian, with 94% of thefentanyl-associated mortalities in 2015 occurring among Caucasians.Multi-drug use was also identified for those with fentanyl-associatedmortality. Mentions of other drugs were present in at least 10% of thedeaths. Some of the other drugs mentioned in the “literals” includedheroin, cocaine, and alprazolam. There was county variation in thenumber of fentanyl morality deaths ranging from 21.19 deaths per100,000 to 0.29 deaths per 100,000 residents. Two counties with thehighest rates were located adjacent to one another.ConclusionsHaving death record data readily available within the statesyndromic surveillance system is beneficial for rapid analysisof mortality trends and the analytic methods used for syndromicsurveillance can be applied to mortality data. Free text querying ofthe “literals” in the vital statistics death records data allowed forsurveillance of fentanyl-associated mortality, similar to methods usedfor querying emergency department chief complaint data. Althoughunderlying ICD-10 codes can lack detail about certain causes ofdeath, the “literals” provide a clearer picture as to what caused thedeath. The “literals” also make it possible to look at potential drugcombinations that may have increased risk of mortality, which willbe explored more thoroughly. Further work will explore other datasources for fentanyl usage and mortality trends, as well as examinepotential risk factors and confounders.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v9i1.7711



Online Journal of Public Health Informatics * ISSN 1947-2579 * http://ojphi.org