Real-time Forecasting of the 2014 Dengue Fever Season in Thailand

How to Cite

Reich, N. G., Sakrejda, K., Lauer, S. A., Cummings, D. A., Suangtho, P., Hinjoy, S., Iamsirithaworn, S., Clapham, H., Salje, H., & Lessler, J. (2015). Real-time Forecasting of the 2014 Dengue Fever Season in Thailand. Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, 7(1).


Real-time surveillance of an infectious disease in a third world country poses many problems that are not conventionally confronted by statistical researchers. As the first ones - to our knowledge - to attempt real-time forecasts of dengue fever in Thailand, we have faced these problems head-on in our quest to build a model that accurately predicts case counts in the presence of erratic reporting, shifting population dynamics, and potential climate change.
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