Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Modeling of Time Series of Local Telephone Triage Data for Syndromic Surveillance

Authors

  • Micael Widerström Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jämtland County Council, Östersund, Sweden; Department of Clinical Microbiology, Unit of Clinical Research Center- Östersund, UmeÃ¥ University, UmeÃ¥, Sweden
  • Maria Omberg Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jämtland County Council, Östersund, Sweden
  • Martin Ferm Centre of Registers in Northern Sweden, UmeÃ¥ University, UmeÃ¥, Sweden
  • Ann-Katrine Pettersson Swedish Health Care Direct 1177, Jämtland County Council, Östersund, Sweden
  • Malin Rundvik Eriksson Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jämtland County Council, Östersund, Sweden
  • Ingela Eckerdal Swedish Health Care Direct 1177, Jämtland County Council, Östersund, Sweden
  • Johan Wiström Department of Clinical Microbiology, Infectious Diseases, UmeÃ¥ University, UmeÃ¥, Sweden; Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Västerbotten County Council, UmeÃ¥, Sweden

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v6i1.5049

Abstract

Weekly aggregated local telephone triage data  collected from 2007 to 2012 in eight municipalities in Jämtland County, Sweden, were analyzed by seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling of time series of the two common syndromes acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and influenza-like illness (ILI). Data analysis was done using the free software R (http://www.r-project.org). The seasonal ARIMA model detected AGE and ILI outbreak signals in the majority of the investigated communities. This forecast model can prove to be an important tool for monitoring local levels of AGE and ILI to enable early detection of outbreaks of these conditions.

Author Biography

Micael Widerström, Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jämtland County Council, Östersund, Sweden; Department of Clinical Microbiology, Unit of Clinical Research Center- Östersund, UmeÃ¥ University, UmeÃ¥, Sweden

Dr Micael Widerström is a senior infectious disease specialist and County Medical Officer at Department for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jämtland County Council, Sweden. His research interest focus on healthcare associated infections and infectious disease control.

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Published

2014-03-09

How to Cite

Widerström, M., Omberg, M., Ferm, M., Pettersson, A.-K., Rundvik Eriksson, M., Eckerdal, I., & Wiström, J. (2014). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Modeling of Time Series of Local Telephone Triage Data for Syndromic Surveillance. Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, 6(1). https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v6i1.5049

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 1 (2014)

Section

Poster Presentations

License

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