A Systematic Review of Influenza Forecasting Studies

Jean-Paul Chretien, Dylan George, Ellis McKenzie

Abstract


We assessed human influenza forecasting studies to spur translation of these novel methods to practice.  Searching 3 databases for papers in English, year 2000-, that validated against independent data, we included 36.  They were population-based, hospital-based, and forecast pandemic spread (N=28, 4, 4, respectively); and used curve-prediction and diffusion models (N=19, 17, respectively).  Four and 5 used internet search and meteorological data, respectively, besides clinical data.  Eight reported sensitivity analyses; 1 compared agent-based and compartmental models.  Several showed favorable 4-week-ahead skill, but lack of sensitivity analysis and model comparisons, and implementation challenges for complex models, may hinder translation to practice.


Full Text:

PDF


DOI: https://doi.org/10.5210/ojphi.v6i1.5016



Online Journal of Public Health Informatics * ISSN 1947-2579 * http://ojphi.org